Using a Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting Model to Analyze the Uncertainty in Real-Time Dynamic Control of the Flood Limiting Water Level for Reservoir Operation

Author:

Liu Dedi1,Li Xiang2,Guo Shenglian3,Rosbjerg Dan4,Chen Hua5

Affiliation:

1. Associate Professor, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan Univ., Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan 430072, China; presently, Dept. of Environmental Engineering, Technical Univ. of Denmark, Bygningstorvet, Building 115, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark 97201 (corresponding author).

2. Senior Engineer, Bureau of Hydrology of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430072, China.

3. Professor, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan Univ., Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan 430072, China.

4. Professor, Dept. of Environmental Engineering, Technical Univ. of Denmark, Bygningstorvet, Building 115, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark 97201.

5. Associate Professor, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan Univ., Wuhan 430072, China.

Publisher

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)

Subject

General Environmental Science,Water Science and Technology,Civil and Structural Engineering,Environmental Chemistry

Reference34 articles.

1. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

2. Performance assessment of a Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) for real-time flood forecasting

3. Cheng C. T. Chau K. W. and Li X. Y. (2007). “Hydrologic uncertainty for Bayesian probabilistic forecasting model based on BP ANN.” 2007 Int. Conf. on Natural Computation (ICNC) IEEE 197–201.

4. Optimizing Hydropower Reservoir Operation Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Chaos

5. General Administration of Quality Supervision Inspection and Quarantine of the People’s Republic of China (AQSIQ) Standardization Administration of the People’s Republic of China (SAC). (2008). “Standard for information and hydrological forecasting.” GB/T 22482-2008.

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