Correlation Analysis and Evaluation for Snowfall Data of ECMWF and Honam Region in Korea

Abstract

As the temperature of the Arctic rises due to global warming, the polar vortex, which is the cold air of the Arctic, has moved southward, which causes the occurrence of unusual cold waves and heavy snowfall in the mid-latitude regions (North America, Europe, and Asia). Since this phenomenon is known to induce damage to people and properties, it is very important to analyze the process and cause of snowfall as well as its predictability in order to lessen if not prevent further damage. While there are many studies that utilize climate models in relation to rainfall, snowfall studies are lacking. This study evaluated the domestic applicability of snowfall data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecast data before performing the snowfall generation process and forecasting research. We analyzed the correlation between monthly fresh snowfall of the 13 stations in the Honam region, which is one of the heaviest snowfall areas in Korea and of monthly snowfall of the ECMWF. After clustering 13 stations using hierarchical cluster analysis, correlation analysis was performed and its accuracy was determined using a confusion matrix. As a result, it was concluded that the applicability of the ECMWF seasonal forecast data is sufficient based on the high correlation and accuracy results between the monthly fresh snowfall data and the monthly snowfall data of the ECMWF. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as basic data for predicting future heavy snowfall to verify its impact and assess the vulnerability to heavy snowfall damage.