Exploring the instability in the food security due to nitrogen fertilizer regulatory policy

Author:

Tirgariseraji Mohammad12,Nejadhashemi A. Pouyan2ORCID,Jafari Yaghoob3,Persson Tomas4,Sabouni Mahmood Sabouhi1,Mirzabaev Alisher5,Nikouei Alireza6,Froshani Naser Shahnoushi1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Agricultural Economics Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad Iran

2. Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA

3. Economic and Agricultural Policy Research Group, Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR) University of Bonn Bonn Germany

4. Division of Food Production and Society Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO) Ås Norway

5. International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) Los Baños Philippines

6. Social and Extension Research Department Isfahan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center (AREEO) Isfahan Iran

Abstract

AbstractThe nitrogen regulatory policy (NRP) solution is introduced as a mitigation measure against environmental nitrogen losses and keeps food production in the Safe Operating Space of the Nitrogen Planetary Boundary. Meanwhile, scientific research shows that steps taken to reduce environmental harm can increase the unpredictability of calorie production from crops. This study sought to investigate the impact of NRP solutions on the level of risk of accessibility to calorie sources from domestic production, the variations in calorie sources by livestock and non‐livestock diet components, and the responses of different dietary preferences, namely, poor, medium, and rich livestock protein diets, against NRP solutions in the Zayandeh‐Rud River basin, Iran. We developed the aggregate household food security index (AHFSI) and combined it with outputs of crop simulation model to examine how changes in dietary energy supplies under three NRP scenarios—low, moderate, and high nitrogen fertilizer application—affect the stability of three regional dietary preferences. The comparison of NRP scenarios movements realized that increases (or decreases) in nitrogen fertilizer rates contradicted the stability in AHFSI. Additionally, a one‐unit change in the average calories from non‐livestock sources, such as wheat and potatoes, results in greater fluctuations in the standard deviations of produced calories compared to changes in meat and dairy production. We proposed that in order to prevent adverse effects of NRP solutions on food security, mitigation strategies addressing the NRP solution should be structured based on (i) regional heterogeneities, (ii) type of crops, that is, food and feed crops, (iii) the range of nitrogen rates movement; (iv) and the socioeconomic background related to dietary preferences or economic deciles of food expenditure.

Funder

National Institute of Food and Agriculture

Publisher

Wiley

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