Capacity for national and regional self‐reliance in fruit and vegetable production in the United States

Abstract

AbstractIncreased fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption would have important health benefits but would also have significant impacts on the U.S. agricultural system. The United States is currently a net importer of these foods but global agricultural systems face growing pressure to feed more people with fewer resources while also adapting to climate change. Thus, increasing self‐reliance may become a key strategy to ensuring a stable supply of nutrient‐dense foods in the United States. However, the capacity to increase the production of specific foods to accommodate shifts towards healthier dietary patterns or increase self‐reliance is not well documented. We estimated the extent to which the United States could meet current and recommended F&V consumption through domestic production based on biophysical capacity at the national and regional levels. Land suitability maps from a previous study were combined with state‐level yield data to estimate biophysical capacity and food availability data were used to estimate F&V consumption. A net‐balance analysis was conducted to compare production capacity to food consumption under both diet scenarios. Our results indicate that the United States could meet current and recommended F&V needs of Americans through domestic production and that each region could meet regional F&V consumption. However, while self‐reliance is biophysically possible, it would require substantial changes in dietary patterns and land use. These findings provide insight into the feasibility and agricultural implications of self‐reliance at the national and regional levels.