Enhancing Solar Forecasting Accuracy with Sequential Deep Artificial Neural Network and Hybrid Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Models across Varied Terrains

Abstract

AbstractEffective solar energy utilization demands improvements in forecasting due to the unpredictable nature of solar irradiance (SI). This study introduces and rigorously tests two innovative forecasting models across different locations: the Sequential Deep Artificial Neural Network (SDANN) and the Deep Hybrid Random Forest Gradient Boosting (RFGB). SDANN, leveraging deep learning, aims to identify complex patterns in weather data, while RFGB, combining Random Forest and Gradient Boosting, proves more effective by offering a superior balance of efficiency and accuracy. The research highlights the SDANN model's deep learning capabilities along with the RFGB model's unique blend and their comparative success over existing models such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST), Categorical Boosting (CatBOOST), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and a K‐Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and XGBOOST hybrid. With the lowest Mean Squared Error (147.22), Mean Absolute Error (8.77), and a high R2 value (0.80) in a studied region, RFGB stands out. Additionally, detailed ablation studies on meteorological feature impacts on model performance further enhance accuracy and adaptability. By integrating cutting‐edge AI in SI forecasting, this research not only advances the field but also sets the stage for future renewable energy strategies and global policy‐making.