An inquiry into urban carrying capacity of sustainable development demonstration belt of China: Multiscale evaluation and multidimensional interaction

Abstract

AbstractHow to seek multiregional sustainable development within planetary boundaries depends on the scientific inquiry into urban carrying capacity from multiscale evaluation and multidimensional interaction. Using a typical region moving forward on the sustainable development demonstration belt of China, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), as a case study, a new integrated framework of multiscale evaluation and multidimensional interaction is proposed to track the urban comprehensive carrying capacity. We made a multiscale comprehensive assessment and constructed a panel vector autoregressive model for giving dissection on the drivers of urban carrying capacity and the qualitative and quantitative interaction from multidimensional variations. Results show that (1) the urban carrying capacity of China's YREB and its three reaches harbors an upward trend over time although there are uneven development patterns of inter‐regional and inter‐dimensional urban carrying capacity; (2) factor market carrying capacity (FMCC) is the critical driving force among four dimensions of urban carrying capacity, which has promotion effects on ecological environment carrying capacity (EECC) and industrial economics carrying capacity, but an inhibiting effect on transportation carrying capacity (TCC). (3) FMCC is the Granger cause of TCC, and there is a bidirectional Granger causality between the dimensions of FMCC and EECC; (4) each dimension is self‐supporting and influenced by its fluctuations. Tracking the underlying factors of urban carrying capacity can help construct an early‐warning mechanism when confronting the challenge of sustainable development and play a guiding role in both academic and practical aspects.