The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Treasury Interest Rates

Author:

Gordon Matthew V.1ORCID,Lunsford Kurt G.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract

Communication by the Federal Reserve is important for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how one form of Federal Reserve communication, the congressional testimony by the Chair of the Board of Governors (the Fed Chair), affects interest rates on 2-year and 10-year Treasury Notes. We study three types of Fed Chair testimony: the first day of Monetary Policy Report testimony, the second day of Monetary Policy Report testimony, and testimonies not associated with the Monetary Policy Report but that still relate to monetary policy. We find that the average size of interest rate changes is largest around first-day Monetary Policy Report testimonies and smallest around second-day Monetary Policy Report testimonies. We also document that the sizes of interest rate changes can vary over time and often correspond to the level of the federal funds rate.

Publisher

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Subject

General Medicine

Reference12 articles.

1. 1. Adrian, Tobias, Michael J. Fleming, and Erik Vogt. 2023. "The Evolution of Treasury Market Liquidity: Evidence from 30 Years of Limit Order Book Data." Staff Report No. 827. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr827.html.

2. 2. Alexopoulos, Michelle, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, and Xu Zhang. 2023. "More than Words: Fed Chairs' Communication during Congressional Testimonies." Journal of Monetary Economics. In press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.002.

3. 3. Bernanke, Ben S. 2010. "The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy." Speech. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. August 27, 2010. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100827a.htm.

4. 4. Gordon, Matthew V., and Kurt G. Lunsford. 2023. "The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair's Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices." Working paper 23-26. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202326.

5. 5. Gürkaynak, Refet S., Brian Sack, and Eric T. Swanson. 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements." International Journal of Central Banking 1 (1): 55-93. https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb05q2a2.htm.

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