OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY: A STRUCTURAL VAR APPROACH

Abstract

This study examines the effect of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of the Nigerian economy covering the period from 1980 to 2018. The effect of oil price shocks is investigated on macroeconomic variables like output growth, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and industrial production index using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach. The results of the investigation reveal that oil price shocks have significantly and negatively affected economic growth and industrial output. Furthermore, while the results show that oil price shocks have a significant positive effect on inflation, the effect is also positive on interest rate and exchange rate, but it is not significant. The results of impulse response function show a negative effect on output growth, it is positive on inflation, but mild and indeterminate on industrial production, interest rate and exchange rate. Based on findings in this study, the Renaissance theory and the Dutch Disease theories of economic growth apply to the Nigerian economy. The policy recommendations include the isolation of the country’s real sector from the vagaries of oil price volatility and the pursue of economic diversification to reduce the over-dependence on oil.