Affiliation:
1. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Abstract
Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries. Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. To characterize the transmission of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, a susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, hospitalized, and recovered dynamical model was formulated, and a basic analysis of the model is presented including model positivity, boundedness, and stability around the disease-free equilibrium. It is found that the model is locally and globally stable around the disease-free equilibrium when
. The model parameterized from COVID-19 confirmed cases reported by the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia (MOH) from March 02 till April 14, while some parameters are estimated from the literature. The numerical simulation showed that the model predicted infected curve is in good agreement with the real data of COVID-19-infected cases. An analytical expression of the basic reproduction number
is obtained, and the numerical value is estimated as
.
Funder
Al-Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University
Subject
Applied Mathematics,General Immunology and Microbiology,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,Modelling and Simulation,General Medicine
Cited by
20 articles.
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