A Multitarget Land Use Change Simulation Model Based on Cellular Automata and Its Application

Author:

Yang Jun12ORCID,Chen Fei1,Xi Jianchao2,Xie Peng1,Li Chuang1

Affiliation:

1. Liaoning Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Geomatics, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China

2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Abstract

Based on the analysis of the existing land use change simulation model, combined with macroland use change driving factors and microlocal land use competition, and through the application of Python language integrated technical approaches such as CA, GIS, AHP, and Markov, a multitarget land use change simulation model based on cellular automata(CA) is established. This model was applied to conduct scenario simulation of land use/cover change of the Jinzhou New District, based on 1:10000 map scale land use, planning, topography, statistics, and other data collected in the year of 1988, 2003, and 2012. The simulation results indicate the following: (1) this model can simulate the mutual transformation of multiple land use types in a relatively satisfactory way; it takes land use system as a whole and simultaneously takes the land use demand in the macrolevel and the land use suitability in the local scale into account; and (2) the simulation accuracy of the model reaches 72%, presenting higher creditability. The model is capable of providing auxiliary decision-making support for coastal regions with the analysis of the land use change driving mechanism, prediction of land use change tendencies, and establishment of land resource sustainable utilization policies.

Funder

National Support Program of China

Publisher

Hindawi Limited

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Analysis

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