Using RS Data-Based CA–Markov Model for Dynamic Simulation of Historical and Future LUCC in Vientiane, Laos

Abstract

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is one of the causes of global climate and environmental change. Understanding rapid LUCC in urbanized areas is vital for natural resources management for sustainable development. This study primarily considered Vientiane, the capital of Laos, which experienced rapid LUCC due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. The study used geographical information system (GIS) combined with ERDAS and TerrSet technologies to objectively process the ground surveyed and remotely obtained data in order to investigate the historical LUCC as well as predict future LUCC in the study area during the periods of 1995–2018 and 2030–2050, respectively. A comprehensive list of assessment factors comprised of both natural and anthropogenic factors was used for analysis using the cellular automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model. The results show a historical loss of intact forest of 24.36% and of bare land of 1.01%. There were also tremendous increases in degraded forest (11.36%), agricultural land (8.91%), built-up areas (4.49%) and water bodies (1.16%). Finally, the LUCC prediction results indicate the conversion of land use from one type to another, particularly from natural to anthropogenic use, in the near future. These changes demonstrate that the losses associated with ecosystem services will destructively impact human wellbeing in the city and other areas of the country. The study results provide the basic scientific knowledge for LUCC planners, urban designers and natural resources managers. They serve as a decision-making support tool for the establishment of sustainable land resource utilization policies in Vientiane and other cities of similar conditions.