Real-Time Travel Time Prediction Based on Evolving Fuzzy Participatory Learning Model

Abstract

Urban expressways take on rapid and external transport in the city due to their fast, safe, and large capacity. Implementing intelligent and active traffic control can effectively improve the performance of urban traffic and mitigate the urban traffic congestion problem. Real-time traffic guidance is one critical way of intelligent active traffic control, and travel time is the most important input for real-time traffic guidance. We employed and improved a machine learning method called the evolving fuzzy participatory learning (ePL) model to predict the freeway travel time online in this paper. The ePL model has a promising nonlinear mapping potential, which is well suitable for the traffic prediction. We used generalized recursive least square (GRLS) to improve the estimation accuracy of the model’s parameters. This model is a fuzzy control model. Its output is the forecasting result which is also the fuzzy reasoning result. We tested this model by comparing it to other travel time prediction approaches, with the freeway data from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System. The results from the improved ePL model showed mean absolute error of 5.941 seconds, mean absolute percentage error of 1.316%, and root mean square error of 10.923 s. The performances are better than those of the baseline models including ARIMA and BPN. This model can be used to predict the travel time in the field to be used for active traffic control and traffic guidance.