Cross-Border Travel Behavior Analysis of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge Using MXL-BMA Model

Abstract

The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) is an important transportation facility connecting Hong Kong, Zhuhai, and Macao. Thus, analyzing the characteristics of cross-border behavior becomes crucial for enhancing the smart travel experience of the HZMB. Discrete choice models (e.g., logit models) are commonly used to describe travel mode choice behavior. Multinomial logit (MNL) is subjected to the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption. Nested logit (NL) model does not consider the heterogeneity of travel individuals. Mixed logit (MXL) model can overcome the above limitations, but it may neglect model uncertainty. Therefore, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is applied to model travel mode choice behavior considering using revealed preference/stated preference (RP/SP) fusion data collected by questionnaires online. A structural equation model (SEM) is adopted to explore the potential relationship between latent variables, and two travel modes (i.e., cross-border bus and cross-border private car) are selected to analyze the cross-border travel mode choice of the HZMB. The results reveal that the MXL-BMA approach can better explain the cross-border travel mode choice behavior. And the transportation modes arriving and departing the HZMB have a significant impact on the travel mode choice of the HZMB. The findings of this study can provide suggestions for designing personalized travel services for travelers across the HZMB.