Analyzing Parking Demand Characteristics Using a Bayesian Model Averaging

Abstract

Parking duration analysis is an important aspect of evaluating parking demand. Identifying accurate distribution characteristics of parking duration can not only enhance parking efficiency and parking facility planning, but also provide essential support for parking delicacy management. Previous studies have proposed various statistical distributions to depict parking duration data. However, it is difficult to find a certain type of distribution to describe the characteristics of parking duration in diverse parking facilities, since model uncertainty is caused by stochastic parking behaviors and diverse parking environments. To address the model uncertainty, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was applied to integrate the advantages of different statistical distributions to depict parking duration characteristics. The parking dataset was collected from a commercial parking lot in Chengdu, China, and the dataset was categorized into two groups (i.e., temporary users and long-term users) to analyze. A set of statistical distributions was chosen as candidate models, and their corresponding unknown parameters were estimated. The posterior model probability for each candidate model was calculated according to the goodness-of-fit (GOF) metric. The findings of the study illustrate that there is no universally applicable distribution form (e.g., log-normal distribution) to depict the parking duration distribution for both user types, whereas the BMA approach assigns weights to candidate models and always provides an accurate description of the parking duration characteristics. The parking duration analysis is useful for improving parking management strategies and optimizing parking pricing policies.