Prediction of Train Arrival Delay Using Hybrid ELM-PSO Approach

Abstract

In this study, a hybrid method combining extreme learning machine (ELM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed to forecast train arrival delays that can be used for later delay management and timetable optimization. First, nine characteristics (e.g., buffer time, the train number, and station code) associated with train arrival delays are chosen and analyzed using extra trees classifier. Next, an ELM with one hidden layer is developed to predict train arrival delays by considering these characteristics mentioned before as input features. Furthermore, the PSO algorithm is chosen to optimize the hyperparameter of the ELM compared to Bayesian optimization and genetic algorithm solving the arduousness problem of manual regulating. Finally, a case is studied to confirm the advantage of the proposed model. Contrasted to four baseline models (k-nearest neighbor, categorical boosting, Lasso, and gradient boosting decision tree) across different metrics, the proposed model is demonstrated to be proficient and achieve the highest prediction accuracy. In addition, through a detailed analysis of the prediction error, it is found that our model possesses good robustness and correctness.