Modeling Road Network Vulnerability for Evacuees and First Responders in No-Notice Evacuation

Abstract

The concept of vulnerability has been employed to develop transport systems that sustain devastating disasters and ensure the efficient evacuation of neighborhoods. Existing studies of road network vulnerability overlook two important aspects of analysis: the no-notice evacuation and the different objectives of evacuees and first responders. First, a no-notice evacuation leaves limited time for proactive emergency planning; therefore, rescue strategies in this scenario rely heavily on real-time traffic information. Second, the goal of first responders in an evacuation is to move into an affected area immediately after a hazardous event unfolds, and the risk they face differs from that of evacuees. To this end, this paper develops a network-based model to evaluate vulnerability during a no-notice evacuation and applies it to a case study in Dublin, OH, USA. The model is suited to assessing network vulnerability in response to events with uncertainty and coordinating traffic control strategies in a no-notice evacuation. This study can become a valuable complement to the methodological conceptualization of vulnerability and can provide insights into developing comprehensive emergency management plans.