A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible $\left(S\right),$ exposed $\left(E\right),$ symptomatically infected $\left(I_s\right),$ asymptomatically infected $\left(I_a\right),$ quarantined $\left(Q\right),$ recovered $\left(R\right),$ and death $\left(D\right)$ , respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as $R_{\text{cvd}19}$ of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $R_{\text{cvd}19}<1$ . On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if $R_{\text{cvd}19}>1$ . The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model’s analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.