Traffic Speed Forecast in Adjacent Region between Highway and Urban Expressway: Based on MFD and GRU Model

Abstract

Traffic congestion in the adjacent region between the highway and urban expressway is becoming more and more serious. This paper proposes a traffic speed forecast method based on the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model to provide the necessary traffic guidance information for travelers in this region. Firstly, considering that the road traffic speed is affected by the macroscopic traffic state, the adjacent region between the highway and expressway is divided into subareas based on the MFD. Secondly, the spatial-temporal correlation coefficient is proposed to measure the correlation between subareas. Then, the matrix of regional traffic speed data is constructed. Thirdly, the matrix is input into the GRU prediction model to get the predicted traffic speed. The proposed algorithm’s prediction performance is verified based on the GPS data collected from the adjacent region between Beijing Highways and Expressway.