An Improved Load Forecasting Method Based on the Transfer Learning Structure under Cyber-Threat Condition

Abstract

Smart grid is regarded as an evolutionary regime of existing power grids. It integrates artificial intelligence and communication technologies to fundamentally improve the efficiency and reliability of power systems. One serious challenge for the smart grid is its vulnerability to cyber threats. In the event of a cyber attack, grid data may be missing; subsequently, load forecast and power planning that rely on these data cannot be processed by generation centers. To address this issue, this paper proposes a transfer learning-based framework for smart grid scheduling that is less reliant on local data while capable of delivering schedules with low operating cost. Specifically, the proposed framework contains (1) a power forecasting model based on transfer learning which can provide high quality load prediction with limited training data, (2) a novel adaptive time series prediction method with modeling time series from a covariate shift perspective that aims to train the forecasting model with a strong generalization capability, and (3) a day-ahead optimal economic power scheduling model considering a shared energy storage station.