Prognostic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors after Surgery Based on the SEER Database

Abstract

We aimed to determine prognostic factors and develop an effective and practical nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) patients. Postoperative data were obtained from the SEER database (2000-2018). Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at random (7 : 3). Prognostic factors were screened, and a prognostic nomogram was established using log-rank testing and Cox regression. We used DCA, ROC curves, C-index, and calibration curves to evaluate our model’s predictive performance. The clinical value of the nomogram and the modified National Institute of Health (M-NIH) classification were compared using the NRI and IDI. The Kaplan-Meier method was applied to examine survival by risk group, and log-rank tests were applied to compare variations in survival curves. Independent prognostic risk factors associated with cancer-specific survival on multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were age, race, and tumor location, size, grade, and stage. Clinically relevant variables need to be considered in addition to statistically significant variables when developing prognostic models to aid clinical decision-making. We included two additional variables (mitotic rate and chemotherapy) when constructing the prognostic model. The C-index was 0.766 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.737-0.794) in the training cohort and 0.795 (95% CI: 0.754-0.836) in the internal validation group suggesting robustness. The areas under the ROC curve for three-year and five-year survival were >0.700, indicating satisfactory discrimination. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the predictions of the nomogram and the actual results. The NRI (0.346 for 3-year and 0.265 for 5-year cancer-specific survival for patients with GIST (GSS) prediction; validation cohort: 0.356 for 3-year and 0.246 for 5-year GSS prediction) and IDI values (0.047 for 3-year and 0.060 for 5-year GSS prediction; validation cohort: 0.071 for 3-year and 0.084 for 5-year GSS prediction) suggested that the established nomogram performed significantly better than the M-NIH classification. The DCA indicated that the nomogram was clinically useful and had a high discriminative ability in identifying patients who were at high risk of poor outcomes. According to nomogram findings, patients were divided into three groups (high, moderate, and low risk), with significantly different prognoses in both cohorts. Our nomogram satisfactorily predicted survival in postsurgical GIST patients, which may assist clinicians to evaluate the postoperative status and guide subsequent treatments.