Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Abstract

Oxygen lances (OLs) are important devices used in converter steel making. However, the occurrence of OL burning loss (OLBL) failure may lead to explosion accidents. To better prevent OLBL failure, it is necessary to perform a probabilistic assessment. Bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory was proposed to assess OLBL, which represents a hazardous event. In this paper, fuzzy theory based on triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) was applied to calculate the failure data. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) in combination with the improved similarity aggregation method (ISAM) was employed to reduce the error generated due to the subjective judgement of experts. Furthermore, a comprehensive importance analysis method was developed to rank the importance of basic events (BEs), facilitating the adoption of the corresponding safety decisions. When performing fuzzy event tree analysis (FETA), the occurrence probability of outcome events (OEs) was determined by conducting a layer of protection analysis (LOPA). Finally, safety measures were proposed based on the assessment results to achieve safe production. The results indicated that the use of bow-tie analysis is appropriate to perform qualitative and quantitative assessment. Through bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory, the occurrence probability of OLBL was determined to be in the interval (5.34E − 02, 2.69E − 01). By adding independent protective layers (IPLs), the occurrence probability of OEs caused by OLBL can be effectively reduced.