Modelling and Stability Analysis of Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCuV) Transmission Dynamics in Cotton Plant

Abstract

In this paper, the transmission dynamics of cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV) disease in cotton plants was proposed and investigated qualitatively using the stability theory of a nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Cotton and vector populations were both taken into account in the models. Cotton population was categorized as susceptible (A) and infected (B). The vector population was also categorized as susceptible (C) and infected (D). We established that all model solutions are positive and bounded by relevant initial conditions. The existence of unique CLCuV free and endemic equilibrium points, as well as the basic reproduction number, which is computed using the next generation matrix approach, are investigated. The conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability of these equilibrium points are then established. When the basic reproduction number is less than one, the system has locally and globally asymptotically stable CLCuV free equilibrium point, but when the basic reproduction number is more than one, the system has locally and globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium point. The numerical simulation findings show that lowering the infection rate of cotton vectors has a significant impact on controlling cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV) in the time frame given.