An Early Risk Warning of Cross-Border E-Commerce Using BP Neural Network

Abstract

In this paper, we propose an early warning model of credit risk for cross-border e-commerce. Our proposed model, i.e., KPCA-MPSO-BP, is constructed using kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO), and BP neural network. Initially, we use KPCA to reduce the credit risk index for cross-border e-commerce. Next, the inertia weight and threshold of BP neural network are searched using MPSO. Finally, BP neural network is used for training the data of 13 different enterprises of cross-border e-commerce’s credit risk. To analyze the efficiency of our proposed approach, we use the data of five different enterprises for testing and evaluation. The experimental results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of our model are the lowest in comparison to the existing models and have much better efficiency.