A Comparative Study of CO2 Emission Forecasting in the Gulf Countries Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Artificial Neural Network, and Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Models

Abstract

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data, with the most common method being trend analysis. Forecasting models are becoming increasingly crucial in uncovering the intricate linkages between large amounts of imprecise data and uncontrollable variables. The main purpose of this article is to compare CO2 emission forecasts in Gulf countries. In this study, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural network (ANN), and holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES) forecasting models are used to anticipate CO2 emissions in the Gulf countries on an annual basis. This study attempts to predict time series data on CO2 emissions in the Gulf countries using statistical tools. The current analysis relied on secondary data gathered from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA). The study’s findings show that the ARIMA (1,1,1), Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, ARIMA (1,1,2), and ARIMA (2,1,2) models outperform the artificial neural network model in estimating CO2 emissions in the Gulf countries. This study gives information on the current state of CO2 emission forecasts. This study will aid the researcher’s understanding of CO2 emissions forecasts. In addition, government agencies can use the findings of this study to develop strategic plans.