Health Indicator for Predictive Maintenance Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Grey Wolf, and K-Nearest Neighbors Algorithms

Abstract

An essential step in the implementation of predictive maintenance involves the health state analysis of productive equipment in order to provide company managers with performance and degradation indicators which help to predict component condition. In this paper, a supervised approach for health indicator calculation is provided combining the Grey Wolf Optimisation method, Swarm Intelligence algorithm, and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. The k-neighbors algorithms is used to predict the Remaining Useful Life of an item, since, in addition to its simplicity, they produce good results in a large number of domains. The approach aims to solve the problem that frequently occurs in interpolation procedures: the approximation of functions belonging to a chosen class of functions of which we have no knowledge. The proposed algorithm allows maintenance managers to distinguish different degradation profiles in depth with a consequently more precise estimate of the Remaining Useful Life of an item and, in addition, an in-depth understanding of the degradation process. Specifically, in order to show its suitability for predictive maintenance, a dataset on NASA aircraft engines has been used and results have been compared to those obtained with a neural network approach. Results highlight how all of the degradation profiles, obtained using the proposed approach, are modelled in a more detailed manner, allowing one to significantly distinguish different situations. Moreover, the physical core speed and the corrected fan speed have been identified as the main critical factors to the engine degradation.