Catching Critical Transition in Engineered Systems

Abstract

A variety of engineered systems can encounter critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold. The critical transition has aroused vital concerns for its potentially disastrous impacts. We validate an often taken-for-granted hypothesis that the failure of engineered systems can be attributed to the respective critical transitions and show how early warning signals are closely associated with critical transitions. We demonstrate that it is feasible to use early warning signals to predict system failures. Our findings open a new path to forecast failures of engineered systems with a generic method and provide supporting evidence for the universal existence of critical transition in dynamical systems at multiple scales.