Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Surplus in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

The temporal variability in estimated water surplus in 12 climatic regions of the province of Ontario, Canada, and its spatial distribution throughout most of the province are discussed in this paper. Surplus water is that which results from precipitation that runs off the land surface and that which drains through the soil profile to the water table and through subsurface drainage. A one-dimensional, deterministic model (DRAINMOD) that simulates soil water flow, including plant uptake, evapotranspiration, and freeze/thaw conditions, was used to estimate the water surplus. Simulations were performed using daily climatic data from January 1954 to December 2001 for each region. A reference corn crop and the predominant local soil conditions in each region, with the hydraulic properties for each layer in the soil profile, were used as model inputs. There was considerable year-to-year variability in annual water surplus in all regions caused by both precipitation and soil conditions. It was the least (~150 mm) in three regions and it exceeded 350 mm in another three regions, where winter snowfall is the greatest as a result of these regions being in the lea of one of the Great Lakes. The variability in water surplus generally increased as average water surplus increased.