Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Motor Hanger for High-Speed Train Based on Bayesian Updating and Subset Simulation

Abstract

In order to more accurately analyze the fatigue reliability of motor hanger for high-speed train and reduce the influence of uncertain factors, a Bayesian statistical method is introduced to propose a novel fatigue reliability analysis method based on Bayesian updating and subset simulation. First, considering the influence of various uncertain parameters on the first principal stress (FPS) of motor hanger, the ANSYS parametric design language (APDL) is used to establish the parametric model. The D-optimal design of experiment is carried out to calculate the FPS of the motor hanger. Second, the experimental data is fitted by the least square method to establish a polynomial response surface function which characterizes the FPS of the motor hanger, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) is carried out. On this basis, the variation trend of the FPS under parameter fluctuation is calculated, and its probability distribution characteristics are obtained. Based on the MATLAB platform, the Bayesian updating method is adopted to correct the probability and statistical characteristics of the FPS to improve the accuracy of prediction. Finally, the subset simulation (SS) method is used to calculate the fatigue failure probability of the motor hanger. The research results show that the proposed method helps to improve the accuracy and efficiency of fatigue reliability analysis.