ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF FREIGHT CAR TECHNICAL STATE

Abstract

The purpose of this work is the assessment and forecasting of freight car technical state at life stages. The scientific novelty consists in the definition of car operating run-up to the first failure and between failures, and also in the definition of car life to considerable repair fulfillment from the operating run between failures and development of a graphical model of freight car reliability. As a result of the statistic modeling of gondola car operating runs up to the first failure it is defined that the given random value conforms to a normal distribution law, the first car setoff in TOR due to wear failure takes place at the operating run of 85,000 km. Besides the operating run-up to the first failure there was defined an operating run-up between failures. It is proved that the operating run-up between failures conforms to the exponential law of distribution, the mathematical expectation of which is 13,000 km. The results of investigations mentioned above formed the basis of the graphical model of car reliability. An inter-repair service life of a car can be represented as a sum of the following operating run-ups: operating run-ups to the first failure, the product of operating run-ups between failures and the number of failures and a residual operating run-up (from the utmost current repair to the nearest scheduled repair). On the basis of the mentioned it is expedient to consider a technology for the realization of an enlarged repair with the purpose of the repetition exclusion in car setoffs during the inter-repair term. On the basis of the simulator there is obtained the dependence of the frequency of car enlarged current repair fulfillment depending on average operating run-up between failures. At present an enlarged current repair must be carried out only for gondola cars in the planned order after having reached 80,000 km. The repair mentioned can be carried out both under depot conditions, and under conditions of repair workshops. The advantage of such a system of repair consists in the increase car work reliability during the inter-repair term.