Mapping Opium Poppy Cultivation: Socioeconomic Insights from Satellite Imagery

Abstract

Over 30 million people globally consume illicit opiates. In recent decades, Afghanistan has accounted for 70–90% of the world’s illicit supply of opium. This production provides livelihoods to millions of Afghans, while also funneling hundreds of millions of dollars to insurgent groups every year, exacerbating corruption and insecurity, and impeding development. Remote sensing and field surveys are currently used in official estimates of total poppy cultivation area. These aggregate estimates are not suited to study the local socioeconomic conditions surrounding cultivation. Few avenues exist to generate comprehensive, fine-grained data under poor security conditions, without the use of costly surveys or data collection efforts. Here, we develop and test a new unsupervised approach to mapping cultivation using only freely available satellite imagery. For districts accounting for over 90% of total cultivation, our aggregate estimates track official statistics closely (correlation coefficient of 0.76 to 0.81). We combine these predictions with other grid-level data sources, finding that areas with poppy cultivation have poorer outcomes such as infant mortality and education, compared to areas with exclusively other agriculture. Surprisingly, poppy-growing areas have better healthcare accessibility. We discuss these findings, the limitations of mapping opium poppy cultivation, and associated ethical concerns.