Scenario analysis of the expected integral economic effect from an innovative project

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to analyse conceptual approaches to determining the financial feasibility of an innovative project and to develop a methodology for assessing the expected integral economic effect of an innovative project based on a set of performance indicators while ensuring the compatibility of the considered scenarios. Analysed are theoretical approaches to assessing the effectiveness of an innovative project in conditions of uncertainty. The features of evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects are identified, and the need to assess the expected integral economic effect of socially significant innovative projects is substantiated. The indicators of efficiency and feasibility of evaluating an innovative project in the context of applicability in various economic conditions are critically studied. A set of indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects has been determined based on the provisions of the integral approach, and these indicators have been systematised based on their relationship. The expected integral economic effect or possible damage from the implementation of an innovative project has been calculated. The expected integral effect of an innovative project with given intervals of probabilities for individual scenarios is calculated. An integrated methodology for assessing the integrated effectiveness of innovative projects is proposed, which combines quantitative and qualitative performance indicators, economic and non-economic effects. The key directions for the selection of effective innovative solutions in the presence of uncontrollable factors, taking into account a variety of indicators, have been determined. A methodology has been developed for evaluating effective innovative projects with a lack or absence of information about the conditions for their implementation and functioning. Methods have been developed for determining the best options for innovative projects based on the theory of multicriteria choice while ensuring the compatibility of the considered scenarios.