Assessing the influence of political factors on the dynamics of exports of Russian oil and petroleum products based on the use of a combination of PESTE and SWOT analysis methods

Abstract

The presented work opens a series of articles devoted to assessing the influence of external factors on the dynamics of Russian exports. In this and subsequent related works, the authors proposed to consider the external environment, which had a significant impact on the dynamics of Russian exports and the relative diffi culty of revising its structure, the basis of commodity exports of which in value terms are hydrocarbon energy carriers. This work represents a conceptual basis for the use of instrumental methods for assessing the infl uence of external factors, in this case, political ones, on sectoral aspects of Russian exports and, in particular, on the export of hydrocarbon energy resources. In the second part of this article, it is proposed to use a set of environmental analysis methods, the basis of which is the real estate market research presented in this article, which tests the possibility of combining PESTEL analysis methods with the results of SWOT analysis, which will allow, based on the use of point estimates, to describe the cumulative impact external factors on the dynamics of the main sectors of Russian exports. The novelty of the presented approach lies in the absence of a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the infl uence of external factors on the dynamics of Russian exports using the selected tools, which seems useful and timely in light of the emergence of new political and economic factors that have a signifi cant impact on Russian foreign trade in general and on the dynamics of the carbohydrate energy market, in particular. The parameters for assessing external factors proposed by the authors were chosen by the author independently, taking into account the modern realities of the development of the world economy, which can also represent a separate point of novelty of the research conducted. The merit of the authors of this work lies in the fact that this work proposed their own vision of a comprehensive assessment of the influence of external factors on the dynamics of the country’s exports.