Tumor Volume Growth Rates and Doubling Times during Active Surveillance of IDH-mutant Low-Grade Glioma

Abstract

Abstract Purpose: Isocitrate dehydrogenase–mutant (IDH-mt) gliomas are incurable primary brain tumors characterized by a slow-growing phase over several years followed by a rapid-growing malignant phase. We hypothesized that tumor volume growth rate (TVGR) on MRI may act as an earlier measure of clinical benefit during the active surveillance period. Experimental Design: We integrated three-dimensional volumetric measurements with clinical, radiologic, and molecular data in a retrospective cohort of IDH-mt gliomas that were observed after surgical resection in order to understand tumor growth kinetics and the impact of molecular genetics. Results: Using log-linear mixed modeling, the entire cohort (n = 128) had a continuous %TVGR per 6 months of 10.46% [95% confidence interval (CI), 9.11%–11.83%] and a doubling time of 3.5 years (95% CI, 3.10–3.98). High molecular grade IDH-mt gliomas, defined by the presence of homozygous deletion of CDKN2A/B, had %TVGR per 6 months of 19.17% (95% CI, 15.57%–22.89%) which was significantly different from low molecular grade IDH-mt gliomas with a growth rate per 6 months of 9.54% (95% CI, 7.32%–11.80%; P < 0.0001). Using joint modeling to comodel the longitudinal course of TVGR and overall survival, we found each one natural logarithm tumor volume increase resulted in more than a 3-fold increase in risk of death (HR = 3.83; 95% CI, 2.32–6.30; P < 0.0001). Conclusions: TVGR may be used as an earlier measure of clinical benefit and correlates well with the WHO 2021 molecular classification of gliomas and survival. Incorporation of TVGR as a surrogate endpoint into future prospective studies of IDH-mt gliomas may accelerate drug development.