Comprehensive Risk Analysis of a Cargo Port Based on Logic-Probabilistic and Simulation Modeling

Abstract

Рurpose of research. Improvement of the effectiveness of the cargo port from the point of view of preventing the occurrence of risk situations based on the development of tools for a comprehensive risk analysis of a cargo port by integrating logical, probabilistic and simulation modeling. Methods. It is presented a structural model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port, supplemented by several levels of consideration, a model of scenarios of all existing significant risks is developed, a hybrid logical-probabilistic model of the risk of failure to achieve the main strategic goal of the port is proposed, which makes it possible to link together the technology of formalizing risks using the constructed logical and probabilistic models, as well as simulation modeling, the interpretation of the results of which is possible using LP-models and scenarios. Results Various types of models for the occurrence of risk events in the cargo port were built based on the set research goal and the formulated tasks. The proposed models make it possible to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port based on the scenario formalization of risks of various levels, and also to simplify the process of interpreting the results of simulation modeling taking into account external factors of influence. All this will allow you to develop timely informed management decisions. Conclusion. The formalization of risks of various levels and the interrelationships between them using logicalprobabilistic modeling is proposed on the basis of the task, which allows formulating management decisions based on a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of the cargo port using the interpretation of the results of simulation modeling.