Predicting plant species climate niches on the basis of mechanistic traits

Author:

Medeiros Camila D.1ORCID,Henry Christian1ORCID,Trueba Santiago2ORCID,Anghel Ioana1ORCID,Guerrero Samantha Dannet Diaz de Leon3,Pivovaroff Alexandria4ORCID,Fletcher Leila R.5ORCID,John Grace P.6ORCID,Lutz James A.7ORCID,Méndez Alonzo Rodrigo3ORCID,Sack Lawren1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of California Los Angeles California USA

2. University of Bordeaux, INRAE, BIOGECO Pessac France

3. Departamento de Biología de la Conservación Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, B.C. Ensenada Baja California Mexico

4. Biology Division at Glendale Community College Glendale California USA

5. Yale School of the Environment Yale University New Haven Connecticut USA

6. Department of Biology University of Florida Gainesville Florida USA

7. Department of Wildland Resources Utah State University Logan Utah USA

Abstract

Abstract Improved estimation of climate niches is critical, given climate change. Plant adaptation to climate depends on their physiological traits and their distributions, yet traits are rarely used to inform the estimation of species climate niches, and the power of a trait‐based approach has been controversial, given the many ecological factors and methodological issues that may result in decoupling of species' traits from their native climate. For 107 species across six ecosystems of California, we tested the hypothesis that mechanistic leaf and wood traits can robustly predict the mean of diverse species' climate distributions, when combining methodological improvements from previous studies, including standard trait measurements and sampling plants growing together at few sites. Further, we introduce an approach to quantify species' trait‐climate mismatch. We demonstrate a strong power to predict species mean climate from traits. As hypothesized, the prediction of species mean climate is stronger (and mismatch lower) when traits are sampled for individuals closer to species' mean climates. Improved resolution of species' climate niches based on mechanistic traits can importantly inform conservation of vulnerable species under the threat of climatic shifts in upcoming decades. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Funder

National Science Foundation

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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