Asymmetries in Potential for Partisan Gerrymandering

Author:

Goedert Nicholas1ORCID,Hildebrand Robert2,Travis Laurel3,Pierson Matt4

Affiliation:

1. Department of Political Science Virginia Tech

2. Grado Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Virginia Tech

3. Department of Business Information Technology Virginia Tech

4. Center for Geospatial Information Technology Virginia Tech

Abstract

This article investigates the effectiveness of potential partisan gerrymandering of the US House of Representatives across a range of states. We use a heuristic algorithm to generate district maps that optimize for multiple objectives, including compactness, partisan benefit, and competitiveness. While partisan gerrymandering is highly effective for both sides, we find that the majority of states are moderately biased toward Republicans when optimized for either compactness or partisan benefit, meaning that Republican gerrymanders have the potential to be more effective. However, we also find that more densely populated and more heavily Hispanic states show less Republican bias or even Democratic bias. Additionally, we find that in almost all cases we can generate reasonably compact maps with very little sacrifice to partisan objectives through a mixed‐objective function. This suggests that there is a strong potential for stealth partisan gerrymanders that are both compact and beneficial to one party. Nationwide, partisan gerrymandering is capable of swinging over 100 seats in the US House, even when compact districts are simultaneously sought.

Funder

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Publisher

Wiley

Cited by 2 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Continuous Equality Knapsack with Probit-Style Objectives;Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications;2024-08-12

2. Black representation and district compactness in Southern congressional districts;Politics, Groups, and Identities;2024-04

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