A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOLOGICAL AND ENGINEERING PREDICTORS OF OILFIELD PERFORMANCE RESPONSE: A CASE STUDY OF OILFIELDS ON THE UK CONTINENTAL SHELF

Abstract

Oilfield production is controlled by a wide range of geological and engineering parameters, many of which are at least partially interrelated. This paper uses multivariate statistical methods (principal component analysis, regression analysis and analysis of variance) to determine how these parameters are related, and which of them are most significant in controlling and predicting oilfield performance. The analysis is based on a database of publicly available oilfield data from the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS), from which a series of geological, engineering and fluid‐related control variables from 136 fields were pre‐processed and analyzed. This dataset is a subset of a much wider project database for UKCS oil, gas and condensate fields. For this study, the project database was divided into two datasets: a first dataset with 10 parameters from 136 fields, and a second, more detailed dataset with 27 parameters from 38 fields. Both datasets were analysed using principal component analysis in order to investigate possible correlations between numerically/statistically interrogable predictor variables such as porosity, permeability, number of production wells, gas‐oil ratio and reservoir temperature. A regression analysis was then carried out on the predictor variables in order to obtain a ranking of predictability (i.e. how indicative a predictor is of a particular outcome) and sensitivity (how sensitive an outcome is to slight changes in a predictor) in relation to recovery factor based on R‐squared and regression coefficient values. The results showed that key variables from the principal component analysis included field size, number of production wells, PVT, gross depositional environment and reservoir quality. High‐ranking parameters of predictability and sensitivity from the regression analysis were found to include API, net‐to‐gross, porosity and reservoir depth. These results are consistent with previous studies and suggest that it should be possible to forecast oilfield recovery based on only a few selected input variables. As a preliminary test of forecasting ability of the variable permutations put forward, a best‐subsets multiple regression was carried out using a statistical software package and yielded results which corroborated the main findings.