The economic aftermath of Thailand's 2014 military coup: Evidence from the synthetic control method

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, I study the effects of Thailand’s 2014 military coup on Thailand’s economy. I use the synthetic control method to create synthetic Thailand, which represents hypothetical Thailand had the 2014 coup not occurred. The empirical findings reveal no statistically significant effects on key economic variables such as gross domestic product, unemployment, military expenditure, and income inequality. Contrary to previous research, military expenditures did not increase following the coup. Supporters of the coup may interpret these results as evidence that the coup had no negative effects on the economy. At the same time, critics may argue that the coup did not lead to improved economic outcomes compared with the politically unstable precoup period, thus perpetuating a state of national stagnation.