Hotspots of uncertainty in land‐use and land‐cover change projections: a global‐scale model comparison

Author:

Prestele Reinhard1,Alexander Peter2,Rounsevell Mark D. A.2,Arneth Almut3,Calvin Katherine4,Doelman Jonathan5,Eitelberg David A.1,Engström Kerstin6,Fujimori Shinichiro7,Hasegawa Tomoko7,Havlik Petr8,Humpenöder Florian9,Jain Atul K.10,Krisztin Tamás8,Kyle Page4,Meiyappan Prasanth10,Popp Alexander9,Sands Ronald D.11,Schaldach Rüdiger12,Schüngel Jan12,Stehfest Elke5,Tabeau Andrzej13,Van Meijl Hans13,Van Vliet Jasper1,Verburg Peter H.114

Affiliation:

1. Environmental Geography Group Department of Earth Sciences Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam De Boelelaan 1087 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands

2. School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Drummond Street Edinburgh EH89XP UK

3. Department Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19 82467 Garmisch‐Partenkirchen Germany

4. Joint Global Change Research Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory College Park MD 20740 USA

5. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency P.O. Box 303 3720 AH Bilthoven The Netherlands

6. Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund University Sölvegatan 12 Lund Sweden

7. Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan

8. Ecosystem Services and Management Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A‐2361 Laxenburg Austria

9. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) P.O. Box 60 12 03 14412 Potsdam Germany

10. Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Urbana IL 61801 USA

11. Resource and Rural Economics Division Economic Research Service US Department of Agriculture Washington DC 20250 USA

12. Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Wilhelmshöher Allee 47 D‐34109 Kassel Germany

13. LEI Wageningen University and Research Centre P.O. Box 29703 2502 LS The Hague The Netherlands

14. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Zürcherstrasse 111 CH‐8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland

Funder

European Research Council

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

General Environmental Science,Ecology,Environmental Chemistry,Global and Planetary Change

Reference70 articles.

1. AlexandratosN BruinsmaJ(2012)World agriculture towards 2030/2050 ‐ The 2012 revision.ESA Working Paper 12‐03. Rome.

2. AlexanderP PresteleR VerburgPet al. (in review)Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

3. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

4. BontempsS DefournyP Van BogaertE ArinoO KalogirouV PerezJR(2011)GLOBCOVER 2009 ‐ Products Description and Validation Report.

5. Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century

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