Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project terrestrial species' responses to climate change and are increasingly being used for similar objectives in the marine realm. These projections are critically needed to develop strategies for resource management and the conservation of marine ecosystems. SDMs are a powerful and necessary tool; however, they are subject to many sources of uncertainty, both quantifiable and unquantifiable. To ensure that SDM projections are informative for management and conservation decisions, sources of uncertainty must be considered and properly addressed. Here we provide ten overarching guidelines that will aid researchers to identify, minimize, and account for uncertainty through the entire model development process, from the formation of a study question to the presentation of results. These guidelines focus on correlative models and were developed at an international workshop attended by over 50 researchers and practitioners. Although our guidelines are broadly applicable across biological realms, we provide particular focus to the challenges and uncertainties associated with projecting the impacts of climate change on marine species and ecosystems.