Affiliation:
1. School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
2. Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences East Boothbay Maine USA
3. MARBEC, IRD, IFREMER, CNRS Université de Montpellier Montpellier France
4. ENS‐LMD Paris France
Abstract
AbstractClimate change scenarios suggest that large‐scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to maintain global warming below 2°C, leading to renewed attention on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). Previous OIF modelling has found that while carbon export increases, nutrient transport to lower latitude ecosystems declines, resulting in a modest impact on atmospheric CO2. However, the interaction of these CDR responses with ongoing climate change is unknown. Here, we combine global ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models to show that, while stimulating carbon sequestration, OIF may amplify climate‐induced declines in tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass under a high‐emission scenario, with very limited potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown. The ‘biogeochemical fingerprint’ of climate change, that leads to depletion of upper ocean major nutrients due to upper ocean stratification, is reinforced by OIF due to greater major nutrient consumption. Our simulations show that reductions in upper trophic level animal biomass in tropical regions due to climate change would be exacerbated by OIF within ~20 years, especially in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), with potential implications for fisheries that underpin the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities. Any fertilization‐based CDR should therefore consider its interaction with ongoing climate‐driven changes and the ensuing ecosystem impacts in national EEZs.
Funder
H2020 European Research Council
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
Natural Environment Research Council
Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment
Subject
General Environmental Science,Ecology,Environmental Chemistry,Global and Planetary Change
Cited by
2 articles.
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