Spatial and temporal differences in fecundity of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) off Nova Scotia and consequences for biological reference points

Abstract

The relationships between fecundity and size of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) were estimated within five different spawning areas off the coast of Nova Scotia in 2019 and 2020. Statistically significant differences in fecundity relative to body weight were observed among spawning areas and between years. Fecundity-at-length on the German Bank spawning ground was 29%–36% and 22%–28% lower than estimates from 2001 and 1970, respectively. Temporal changes in weight- and relative fecundity-at-age resulted in a decrease in the number of eggs-per-recruit (in an equilibrium unfished state) by 50% and a decrease of 27% in the egg production per tonne of spawning stock biomass (SSB) in 2020 relative to 1970. Decreases in SSB-per-recruit and eggs-per-recruit over time resulted in proportional decreases in equilibrium SSB at maximum sustainable yield (MSY); however, the fishing mortality rate (F) at MSY remained relatively stable over time. Total egg production was shown to be disproportional to SSB. Equilibrium SSB at MSY was greater (and F at MSY lower) when estimated using eggs-per-recruit compared to SSB-per-recruit. Failing to account for fecundity and assuming that egg production is proportional to SSB resulted in an overestimate of stock status.