Climate change experiment suggests divergent responses of tree seedlings in eastern North America’s Acadian Forest Region over the 21st century

Abstract

In this study, we conducted a controlled experiment to assess the growth and survival of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.), and red maple (Acer rubrum L.) seedlings in response to warming, drought, and elevated CO2, as projected under RCP 8.5 for North America’s Acadian Forest Region. In response to warming, only red spruce increased in height; however, this effect varied by CO2 and soil moisture treatments. Under the drought treatment, red spruce biomass was not affected, but mortality increased by 2%. With warming, increases in balsam fir height growth were only detected under certain soil moisture and CO2 conditions. Balsam fir biomass decreased by 24% under drought, while mortality increased by 5%. Warming did not improve red maple height growth, but it remained 7–50 times greater than that of the conifers and no mortality was observed. Overall, CO2 enrichment increased height growth of droughted seedlings relative to the ambient treatment, demonstrating an amelioration of the negative drought effect. Balsam fir was the least adapted to warming and drought, while red spruce displayed some positive responses. Although growth of red maple seedlings did not increase with warming, they exhibited greater absolute growth and survival, which suggests red maple may outperform both conifers under a warming climate.