Recent evidence of Mexican temperate forest decline and the need for ex situ conservation, assisted migration, and translocation of species ensembles as adaptive management to face projected climatic change impacts in a megadiverse country

Abstract

Symptoms of forest decline, apparently due to climate change, have become evident in the last 10 years on the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt and northwestern temperate forest of Mexico, particularly at the xeric (low elevational) limit of several forest tree species. We review and provide recent evidence of massive infestation of timberline Pinus hartwegii Lindl. by the mistletoes Arceuthobium globosum Hawksw. & Wiens and Arceuthobium vaginatum (Humb. & Bonpl. ex Willd.) J.Presl; insufficient Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham. seedling recruitment at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve; indications of inbreeding and defoliation in endangered Picea chihuahuana Martínez, Picea martinezii T.F. Patt., Picea mexicana Martínez, and extreme southern populations of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco; and the incidence of unusual pest and disease outbreaks (e.g., Dendroctonus Erichson, 1836 spp., Neodiprion autumnalis Smith, and Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands) in several conifer and oak species. We also discuss a difficult question: Is natural genetic variation sufficient to provide populations with the adaptive variation necessary to survive the natural selection imposed by projected climate change scenarios, or will phenotypic plasticity be exhausted and populations decline? Controversial ex situ conservation within natural protected areas, assisted migration, and translocation of species ensembles are discussed as options by which to accommodate projected climatic change impacts on the management and conservation practices of the megadiverse Mexican temperate forest.