Effects of forest management and harvesting intensity on the timber supply from Finnish forests in a changing climate

Abstract

We studied the potential effects of management and harvesting intensity on the timber supply from Finnish forests in a changing climate and, consequently, the possibilities of meeting the increasing wood demand of the growing forest-based bioeconomy. The study employed data from the 11th National Forest Inventory of Finland. Plots located on forest land assigned to timber production were used to develop two even-flow harvesting scenarios with annual timber harvesting targets of 60 and 80 million m3. Calculations were done for a 90-year simulation period under the current and changing climates using recent-generation (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) global climate model projections under three representative concentration pathways forcing scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Intensified management used improved seed and seedling stock in artificial regeneration. It also used fertilization on subxeric pine-dominated and mesic spruce-dominated stands and ditch maintenance on 40% of drained peatlands, when the growing stock characteristics fulfilled a set of predetermined criteria. Our results showed that, with intensified management, it is possible to harvest 80 million m3·year−1 of timber under mild (RCP2.6) and moderate (RCP4.5) climate change without decreasing the growing stock volume at the country level during the 90-year simulation period. This is not possible under severe climate change (RCP8.5) due to the rapid decline in forest growth, particularly in the south after about 30 years.