Effects of forest conservation and management on volume growth, harvested amount of timber, carbon stock, and amount of deadwood in Finnish boreal forests under changing climate

Abstract

We employed a forest ecosystem model (SIMA) to study how the changes in forest conservation area and management affect the volume growth, harvested amount of timber, carbon stock, and amount of deadwood in Finnish boreal upland forests under current and changing climates (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over 2010–2099. Simulations were carried out on National Forest Inventory plots using three different forest conservation scenarios (baseline and 10% and 20% increases of conservation area) and three thinning regimes (baseline and maintenance of ±20% stocking in thinning compared with recommendations). An increase of forest conservation area increased the volume growth, carbon stock, and quantity of deadwood in forests, as did the maintenance of 20% higher stocking in thinning. Maintenance of 20% lower stocking in thinning increased, in general, the amount of harvested timber, but it could not compensate for the decrease of harvested timber due to increase of conservation area. Climate warming greatly increased all of the studied variables in northern Finland but decreased them in southern Finland, the most under the strongest climate warming scenario, RCP8.5. Climate warming also increased the quantity of deadwood throughout Finland. To conclude, we found clear trade-offs for production of different ecosystem services.