Influence of headwater reservoirs on climate change impacts and flood frequency in the Kabul River Basin

Abstract

Although climate change impacts vary globally, for the Kabul River Basin (KRB), concerns are primarily associated with frequent flooding. This research describes the influence of headwater reservoirs on projections of climate change impacts and flood frequency, and how riparian countries can benefit from storing of floodwaters for use during dry seasons. Six climate change scenarios and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used in three periods of a quarter-century each. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess how the proposed reservoirs will reduce flooding by ∼38% during the wet season, reduce the flood frequency from five to 25 years return period, and increase low flows by ∼110% during the dry season, which reflect an ∼17.5% reduction in the glacier-covered area by the end of the century. The risks and benefits of reservoirs are highlighted in light of the developmental goals of Afghanistan and Pakistan.