Host–parasite distributions under changing climate: Tsuga heterophylla and Arceuthobium tsugense in Alaska

Abstract

Dwarf mistletoes ( Arceuthobium species) influence many processes within forested ecosystems, but few studies have examined their distribution in relation to climate. An analysis of 1549 forested plots within a 14.5 million ha region of southeast Alaska provided strong indications that climate currently limits hemlock dwarf mistletoe ( Arceuthobium tsugense (Rosendahl) G.N. Jones) to a subset of the range of its primary tree host, western hemlock ( Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), with infection varying from a high of 20% of trees at sea level to only 5% by 200 m elevation. Three types of modeling approaches (logistic, most similar neighbors, and random forests) were tested for the ability to simultaneously predict abundance and distribution of host and pathogen as a function of climate variables. Current distribution was explained well by logistic models using growing degree-days, indirect and direct solar radiation, rainfall, snowfall, slope, and minimum temperatures, although accuracy for predicting A. tsugense presence at a particular location was only 38%. For future climate scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1), projected increases for A. tsugense habitat over a century ranged from a low of 374% to a high of 757%, with differences between modeling approaches contributing more to uncertainty than differences between climate scenarios.