Recent and projected climate change–induced expansion of Atlantic halibut in the Northwest Atlantic

Abstract

With the influence of climate change on marine systems expanding, climate adaptation will be fundamental for the future of fisheries management. An exponential increase in Atlantic halibut Hippoglossus hippoglossus landings over the past decade has coincided with warming ocean temperatures. Here, we explore how historical changes in abundance have been linked to changing thermal habitat conditions and project trends with a warming climate under different emissions scenarios. From 1990 to 2018, available thermal habitat increased by 11.6 ± 7.35% and growing degree days have increased by 13.5 ± 7.86 °C·days across the region. With warming, the probability of occurrence is projected to increase up to 20.5% in Canada by 2085 under RCP 8.5 for Atlantic halibut. Our results suggest that shifting patterns of halibut distribution and abundance are linked to thermal conditions and that continued warming will likely continue to enhance habitat conditions, leading to increased abundance in the Canadian range. Collectively, these results illustrate the influence of shifting environmental conditions on population dynamics and emphasize the importance of adaptive management practices in a dynamic future climate.