Affiliation:
1. Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Abstract
This scientific work has a review nature and is aimed at systematizing, generalizing and highlighting the scientific and methodological foundations of NATO in technological foresight to identify breakthrough technologies.
The article describes general approaches, main methodological aspects and technology assessment indicators, and provides common and different features in foresights 2020 and 2023. In particular, the process of technology assessment according to the Gartner cycle and levels of technological maturity is reflected.
A separate block presents the results of a technological foresight with a forecast horizon until 2043. At the same time, the levels of technological maturity and potential impact on NATO capabilities were assessed, and the approximate time horizons for technology readiness were determined. Each scientific and technological area is given a brief description and decomposition into technological groups is shown.
Publisher
State Scientific Institution - Ukrainian Institute of Scientific and Technical Expertise and Info
Reference21 articles.
1. Slyusar, V. I., Sotnyk, V. V., & Kupchyn, A. V. (2020). Proryvni tekhnolohiyi v oboronniy sferi Ukrayiny. [Disruptive technologies in the defense sphere of Ukraine]. Ozbroyennya ta viysʹkova tekhnika [Armament and military equipment]. 4 (28), 13–23. https://doi.org/10.34169/2414-0651.2020.4(28).13-23 [in Ukr.].
2. Kupchyn, A., & Sotnyk, V. (2021). A model of disruptive technologies determination for defense sphere. Issues of Armament Technology. 156 (1), 65–83. https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.2529.
3. Reding, D. F., Lucia, A. D., Blanco, A. M., Regan, C. L. A., & Bayliss, D. (2023). Science & Technology Trends 2023-2043. Across the Physical, Biological, and Information Domains. NATO Science & Technology Organization. Brussels, Vol. 1. 150 p. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2023/3/pdf/stt23-vol1.pdf.
4. Reding, D. F., & Eaton, J. (2020). Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040. NATO Science & Technology Organization. Brussels, 160 p. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/4/pdf/190422-ST_Tech_Trends_Report_2020-2040.pdf.
5. Schiavi, G. S., & Behr, A. (2018). Emerging technologies and new business models: a review on disruptive business models. Innovation & Management Review. 15 (4), 338–355. https://doi.org/10.1108/INMR-03-2018-0013.